Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

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Market context

Chengdu’s temperature on 1 August will be judged on the highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, so the market is really about whether the day tops out in an ordinary early-August range or pushes into a hotter-than-usual spike. The current 0% yes price sits against a climate backdrop that is clearly warm: multiple datasets put Chengdu’s August average high around 29.8°C to 30°C, with early August commonly near the warm end of the monthly range and daily highs often around 87°F to 90°F.[1][2][12]

The historical frame matters because Chengdu can produce much hotter extremes than its averages suggest. August records cited across weather-history sources include highs around 39.2°C in August 1994 and 41.6°C in August 2022, while more typical August days cluster in the low-30s Celsius rather than the upper-30s.[6][16] That means a 0% yes implies the market is discounting any chance of a record-type day, but comparable August cases show that very hot outcomes are not impossible even if they are well outside the mean.[4][6]

For traders, the key catalyst is the actual airport observation through the day, not broader Chengdu forecasts, because the contract settles on the station’s daily maximum. The main dependency is whether daytime heating is cut short by cloud, rain or convection; August in Chengdu is also one of the wetter periods, with monthly precipitation commonly around 195mm to 318mm and frequent rainy days, which can suppress the maximum if showers arrive early.[2][6][12] With the settlement window ending at noon UTC, the market will be driven by how quickly the day warms at the airport before and around the Chinese afternoon, when the highest reading is typically established.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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