Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport needs a clear, warm afternoon for the high to land above the lowest bands, and the market is set against a climate that usually delivers exactly that in August. Long-run August guides put Chengdu’s daytime highs around 30–32°C, with several sources describing the month as hot, humid and frequently wet rather than cool[2][12][15][16]. Forecast pages for 3 August 2026 point to a sunny or clear day around 33°C, which is comfortably above the lows that would matter for a bearish outcome[1][5]. On that framing, a 0% YES price only makes sense if traders are treating the contract as mispriced or expecting a sharp undercut versus typical August conditions.

The key move is the airport’s actual daily maximum, not the city-wide feel, so convective rain, cloud build, or an earlier shower can still cap the number even if the broader forecast stays hot. Chengdu’s summer pattern is often high humidity with scattered rainfall, and weather services note that showers can be brief but localised, which means small forecast changes can matter at the margin[2][3][12]. A trader should watch the airport-specific forecast updates, hourly temperature curves, and any shift in precipitation timing as the day unfolds; Met Office output already shows 35°C potential in Chengdu with only moderate rain chances, underlining how quickly the line can move if the atmosphere stays unstable[14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.