Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is set up for another hot, humid August day, with long-range August guides pointing to typical highs around 30–34C and a city climate that regularly produces afternoon peaks in the low 30s. Recent venue-level guidance for Chengdu Shuangliu also points to a warm day profile, while a forecast published on 3 August put Chengdu at 21–35C with cloud and thunderstorms, leaving the upper-30s range as possible only if the sun breaks through for long enough.

That makes the 0% price on the lowest brackets look thin against the historic pattern. For this market, the key comparison is not whether Chengdu reaches the low 30s — it usually does in August — but whether the airport station can climb beyond the mid-30s before cloud, shower bands, or earlier convection cap the day. A forecast table for 4 August has already suggested a peak near 32C, while another city forecast for the same date showed 35C as the top end, which keeps the 33C-35C bands in play and makes a hotter print materially less likely than a routine high-20s outcome.

The main catalyst is the day’s evolving shower and thunderstorm cover, because any earlier cloud build-up or rain would trim the ceiling quickly. Traders should watch updates from the airport station through the morning, especially after the settlement window starts to close at 12:00Z, since late-morning sunshine can still matter for the daily maximum even if the afternoon turns wet. A live METAR for the airport on a recent observation showed light rain showers with temperatures in the high 20s, which is consistent with a muggy setup but not one that guarantees a major spike.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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