Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is entering its peak summer heatwave, with July consistently delivering the city’s highest daily temperatures. Historical data shows July highs typically range from 30°C to 38°C, with several days in recent years exceeding 37°C [2][4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact range or believe the market is mispriced relative to seasonal norms, though the 0% figure likely reflects a placeholder before active trading begins rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will occur.

Comparable cases from the past five years show Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station recording highs of 37°C on 6 July 2026, 38°C on 11 July 2023, and 36°C on 11 July 2022 [9][10]. These figures indicate that temperatures in the 36–38°C band are well within historical precedent for mid-July, making a 0% probability for any range statistically anomalous unless the market is still in its initial pricing phase. Traders should watch for real-time updates from Wunderground on the morning of 11 July, as the settlement source is explicitly tied to that station’s recorded maximum [8].

Key catalysts include the official Wunderground daily report, which will be published shortly after midnight UTC on 12 July, confirming the day’s peak temperature [8]. No weather announcements or model updates are expected to alter the outcome before settlement, as the event is purely observational. The market’s resolution hinges entirely on this single data point, with no dependencies on forecasts or external variables.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.