Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July climate is defined by intense heat and humidity, with the city routinely experiencing its peak temperatures during this month. Historical data shows that daily highs at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport frequently reach between 33°C and 36°C, often climbing higher under clear skies and stagnant air conditions [1]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome suggests traders are either misinterpreting the market’s resolution logic or assuming an unprecedented cooling event, which contradicts decades of recorded weather patterns for the region in late July.

Comparable cases from recent years confirm that temperatures exceeding 35°C are standard, with 2023 and 2024 both recording peaks of 37°C and 38°C respectively on dates near July 20. These precedents frame the 0% probability as a likely market inefficiency rather than a rational assessment of risk. Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily updates as the settlement window approaches, particularly any sudden shifts in local meteorological bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration that might indicate unusual cloud cover or rainfall [1]. No major weather anomalies have been forecast for mid-July 2026, reinforcing the expectation of typical summer extremes.

Key catalysts include the release of official temperature logs on July 21, 2026, which will confirm the day’s peak and trigger market resolution. Traders must watch for real-time Wunderground entries for ZUUU (Chengdu Shuangliu) and any corrections from regional weather authorities that could alter the recorded maximum. Absent a rare monsoon surge or extreme cloud persistence, the historical trend strongly supports a high-temperature outcome, making the current pricing vulnerable to rapid correction once data becomes available.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.