Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 24 July will be driven by a summer pattern that is normally hot, humid and rain-prone, with July daytime highs commonly around 29–37°C and some peak heat spells reaching 39°C in the city. Forecast context for this period also points to a wide daily range rather than a locked-in ceiling, with one current outlook showing 24°C now and a next-two-weeks range stretching up to 36°C. [3][1][2]

The market’s 0% YES pricing looks conservative against Chengdu’s seasonal profile, because a reading that lands in the higher temperature bands is entirely normal in late July. What matters for settlement is the single highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so even a brief afternoon spike is enough to decide the outcome; by contrast, cloud cover and showers can hold the final maximum well below the city’s typical summer highs. [3][1]

Traders should watch the local forecast updates through the day, especially any changes to rain timing, cloud cover and wind, because those are the main near-term variables that can cap the afternoon high. The airport station’s official daily history page on Wunderground is the settlement source, so the key dependency is whether the day ends up producing a clear warm-up window around early-to-mid afternoon or gets suppressed by convective rain and humidity. [3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.