Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The city sits in a basin in Sichuan Province where summer temperatures regularly exceed 35°C, though the specific daily maximum depends on atmospheric conditions, cloud cover, and monsoon influence during that period.

Historical data from Chengdu shows July temperatures cluster between 32°C and 38°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either unusually cool conditions or systematic underestimation of typical summer maxima for this location. Comparable July readings from 2015–2024 indicate that temperatures below 30°C occur in fewer than 5% of cases, whilst readings above 37°C appear in roughly 30–40% of years depending on monsoon timing and strength.

The primary variable affecting outcome is the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity in late July 2026. Stronger monsoon systems bring cloud cover and precipitation that suppress daytime highs, whilst weak monsoon years allow sustained solar heating and higher peaks. Current seasonal forecasting models from meteorological services will become more reliable from June 2026 onwards. Traders should monitor whether early-July 2026 temperatures run above or below the 35°C median, as this typically signals whether late-month conditions will follow warmer or cooler patterns. Wunderground's historical archive will provide the definitive settlement figure once the date passes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.