Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 20 June typically sits in the low 30s Celsius, with June highs usually around 30–31°C and only rare excursions into the mid-to-upper 30s. WeatherSpark says daily highs in June rise from about 81°F to 83°F, while China Highlights notes that mid-to-late June can occasionally produce highs of 35–39°C, but those are outliers rather than the norm.[1][2]

That makes a **0% YES** price hard to justify on climatology alone if the market is for a broad, warm-weather outcome, but much more understandable if the target band is set materially above the usual Chengdu range. The historical setup points to a fairly narrow centre of mass around 30–33°C, with overcast conditions becoming more common through June and rainfall often arriving as short showers rather than prolonged cooling.[1][2] Chengdu has recorded much hotter days in recent years, including a city-wide peak of 38.6°C in August 2022, so very high outcomes are not impossible in the city’s climate, even if they remain infrequent.[7]

The main catalysts are the short-term forecast, cloud cover, and whether any pre-summer hot spell builds over Sichuan before the settlement window closes. Wunderground’s Chengdu Shuangliu Intl Airport history page is the key resolution source, and the market settles on the day’s highest observed airport temperature, so any midday spike matters more than the overnight low.[4] Traders should watch for forecast revisions from now through the morning and early afternoon UTC, especially if a stronger-than-usual heat ridge develops; absent that, the most likely outcome remains a mid-30s-or-lower reading rather than an extreme jump.[1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.