Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s peak temperature is usually set in the early-to-mid afternoon, but in August the city is hot enough that the day’s high can still be driven by a brief surge rather than a steady climb. Long-run guides describe August as Chongqing’s hottest month, with average daytime highs around 34°C and frequent days above 40°C, alongside high humidity and regular rain, so the market’s 0% implied yes rate looks anchored to a view that the airport station will stay below the upper bands typically seen in heatwave conditions.[1][16][17]

Comparable August data point to a wide but elevated distribution: travel and climate references put typical August highs near the mid-30s Celsius, while more extreme days can reach the low 40s.[1][15][17] For a market resolved on the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, that makes the exact airport reading more important than citywide averages, because airport sites often run a little different from inner-city conditions and are the final arbiter for settlement.[16] In practical terms, temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s are the baseline, but a clear, dry spell can still push the day into the high 30s.

The main catalysts are the day’s forecast updates, any short-term thunderstorm timing, and whether afternoon cloud cover or rain caps the maximum before settlement at 12:00 UTC. Live forecasts already show a hot, humid August profile for Chongqing with rain risk through the day, which means traders should watch for revisions to the midday and early-afternoon temperature path rather than the overnight minimum.[3][13] If the forecast firms up around a sunny window, the ceiling rises quickly; if showers arrive earlier, the upside for the recorded high compresses just as fast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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