Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s late-summer heat is the key reference point here: August is typically the city’s hottest month, with average highs around 34°C and historic 4 August highs near 34.6°C, while some guides say extreme August heat can reach 39–43°C.[1][5][7] That makes a zero-implied-probability price for a top temperature bucket look aggressive if the market is effectively discounting a normal-to-hot day, although the exact settlement depends on the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport station reading rather than citywide averages.[1][12] Recent published monthly outlooks also point to daytime temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s, which is consistent with a settlement in a warmer band if conditions stay typical.[2][4][9]

The main trader watchpoint is whether Chongqing stays under the influence of the current regional heat pattern or gets interrupted by rain and cloud. A recent report said residents were seeking shelter as a heatwave hit Chongqing, underlining that the city can still push into very hot territory in early August.[19] Short-range forecasts for 4 August have differed: one source shows 37°C/27°C with patchy rain possible, while another model output points to about 42°C by day and 32°C overnight, highlighting the spread in guidance and the importance of the airport station’s actual peak reading.[10][15] Any change in forecast moisture, thunderstorm timing, or cloud cover before the settlement window closes would be the most relevant catalyst for repricing.[10][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.