Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun Airport is in the middle of its muggy, storm-prone summer pattern, and the market is about whether the day’s *maximum* gets into a hot-but-not-outlier range. August averages in Guangzhou are roughly 32–33°C for daytime highs, with heavy rainfall and around 19–20 rainy days in the month, so the base case is another warm day rather than a dramatic heat spike.[1][3][13][19]

The historical frame is that August regularly produces highs in the low-to-mid 30s, but the ceiling is meaningfully higher when the rain misses: one Guangzhou August climate table shows individual days reaching 35.2°C, 36.0°C and 36.2°C, while another source says August highs “rarely” fall below 33°C and can reach the mid-30s.[6][16] That makes a 0% implied chance for the relevant range look detached from the city’s normal summer distribution, unless the market’s settlement bands are set unusually far above the airport’s typical daily extremes.[1][3][6]

Traders should watch the local forecast cycle for Baiyun Airport, especially any shift in thunderstorm timing, cloud cover and rainfall, because Guangzhou’s heat is often capped or delayed by convective showers.[13][19] The latest August 2026 forecast data already points to highs mostly in the 31–36°C bracket across the month, with several days near 35–36°C and persistent rain in the outlook, which means the exact settlement depends on whether the hottest part of the day breaks through before showers build.[7][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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