Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s airport temperature on 4 August is a straight weather result: the market resolves off the **highest recorded reading** at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on that day. The current 0% yes price is hard to square with the climate backdrop, because Guangzhou is in its hottest stretch in August, with typical monthly highs around 33–34°C and persistent humidity[1][5][16][18].

That context matters because the city regularly posts afternoons well into the low-30s even before accounting for heat spikes. Recent forecast output already points to a warm, wet day for 4 August, with around 33°C and rain showers in several modelled views, while official-style city guidance from Hong Kong’s information service put Guangzhou at 25–31°C with rain the previous day[2][8][11]. For a market like this, the key comparison is not whether Guangzhou can get hot, but whether cloud, rain and onshore flow clip the daytime maximum below the upper-30s; historical August averages strongly favour a peak in the low-to-mid 30s[3][14][17].

Traders should watch the Baiyun Airport observation feed on Wunderground through the afternoon local time, because the winning range depends on the single daily maximum rather than the noon snapshot. The main catalysts are the timing of showers, thunderstorm development and any late-day clearing that allows temperatures to rise before the settlement window closes; current airport conditions already show warm, humid air and showers in the area[6][15]. If the day stays broadly in line with the published August pattern, the market is likely to resolve inside the usual 30s band rather than anywhere near a cooler outlier[1][5][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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