Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the “YES” range. This date falls squarely within Guangzhou’s peak summer period, when daily highs typically hover around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (84°F) or exceeding 36°C (96.8°F) [1][5].

Historical data frames this near-zero probability with striking clarity: the highest temperature ever recorded in Guangzhou on 1 July was 39.1°C, measured on 1 July 2004 [3]. While that extreme is an outlier, recent years show China experiencing its hottest July on record since 1961, with national averages surpassing previous peaks [2][6]. However, even in record-hot summers, daily highs in Guangzhou seldom breach 36°C, making the implied 0% probability for higher ranges statistically grounded under current climate norms [1][8].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for 1 July 2026, as the market resolves exclusively on the station’s highest temperature reported that day [4]. No official weather announcements are expected to alter the outcome, but sudden shifts in monsoon activity or urban heat anomalies could influence readings. Given the settlement window ending 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, any temperature spike after 12:00 UTC will not count [4]. With no recent news indicating unprecedented heatwaves in southern China, the market’s current pricing reflects a cautious but rational assessment of seasonal likelihoods [5][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.