Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature thresholds available or treating this as an outlier event unlikely to occur.

Guangzhou's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from Baiyun Station shows July daily highs typically range between 32–35°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 36–37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon pattern means late July sits within the peak summer period, when high-pressure systems dominate and afternoon temperatures regularly exceed 33°C. Comparable years show that temperatures above 38°C are exceptionally rare at the airport station, occurring perhaps once per decade during exceptional circumstances.

Traders should monitor mid-July weather patterns from late June onwards, as the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity directly influences whether Guangzhou experiences typical seasonal heat or anomalous extremes. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues heat warnings 3–5 days before significant temperature spikes. Any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid July could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst persistent high-pressure ridges would favour above-average readings. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull from Baiyun Station, making the specific temperature range options critical to understanding why current probability sits at zero.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.