Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s airport station is in a reliably hot part of the year, so the relevant question is not whether it will be warm, but whether the day reaches an upper-end July reading. Long-run July norms cluster around the low 30s Celsius, with mean daily maximums around 33.3°C in one climate record and a July average high of roughly 32.7°C in another, while the all-time July record is close to 39°C[13][2]. That means a settlement in the upper 20s or very low 30s would be below normal, whereas a mid-30s print would be much more in line with Guangzhou’s heat profile[13][2]. The current 0% yes pricing therefore looks like a severe discount to the city’s climatology rather than a statement that heat is impossible.

For traders, the main catalysts are the same ingredients that move Guangzhou summer highs: cloud cover, afternoon rain bands, and the strength of the subtropical ridge. Guangzhou’s July is typically hot, humid and rainy, with substantial precipitation and high humidity that can cap daytime maxima when showers arrive early[5][19]. Recent daily history also shows large swings around the low- to mid-30s Celsius, including highs in the 32–34°C zone on comparable late-July dates[5]. Because the market resolves from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on 31 July, the key watchpoint is the day’s peak temperature as reported in Wunderground’s history page for that station, not citywide averages[7]. If the morning starts muggy but dry, the chance of a higher noon or mid-afternoon spike rises; if convection builds early, the ceiling can fall quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.