Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the market tracks the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, with the settlement source drawn from Wunderground’s daily high for that station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being offered, likely because historical data points to a higher or lower band than the one in play.

Historically, July in Guangzhou sees daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F)[1]. The highest daily average high occurs on 25 July at 33°C, while extreme heat can push temperatures to 39°C (102°F) during the hottest spells[8]. Recent years have shown intensified heat waves, with July 2024 marking the highest average temperature since 1961 at 23.2°C[3]. This context frames the 0% probability as a signal that the offered range is misaligned with typical or extreme July peaks.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live updates for the Baiyun station on 7 July, as sudden thunderstorms or heavy rain—common in Guangzhou’s July climate—could suppress peak temperatures[4]. Any official announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre regarding heat advisories or record-breaking conditions would also shift expectations. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 7 July, real-time data from the station will be the definitive catalyst for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.