Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the market hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, a critical hub in Guangdong’s Huadu and Baiyun districts[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the peak will fall outside the specified range, likely due to Guangzhou’s notorious summer heat pushing temperatures well above typical thresholds.

Historical data frames this expectation: July 2025 saw sustained highs near 90°F (32°C) at the airport, with July 2023 recording similar peaks[3][8]. AccuWeather notes the average high for July is 90°F, with lows around 79°F, indicating consistent warmth that rarely dips below 30°C[9]. Such patterns make a 0% YES probability plausible only if the range is set unusually low, as Guangzhou’s summer climate typically exceeds 32°C.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for the day’s peak, as sudden rain or cloud cover could alter outcomes[6]. Recent hourly forecasts show persistent rain early on 9 July, with temperatures hovering near 93°F (34°C) before sunrise[7]. Any official weather advisories from local authorities or Wunderground’s daily summary will be decisive; watch for announcements on extreme heat warnings, which could confirm temperatures exceeding the range[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.