Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

Guangzhou will experience its typical early-summer heat on 4 June 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport determining the settlement outcome. The city sits in southern China's subtropical zone, where June marks the onset of the pre-monsoon season with consistently warm conditions and increasing humidity ahead of the summer peak.

Historical data from Baiyun station shows June daily maxima typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature ranges or the market's upper thresholds sit above realistic expectations for early June. Comparable years reveal that temperatures exceeding 38°C in early June remain rare at this location, occurring perhaps once per decade. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, which aligns with morning readings at Guangzhou but misses the afternoon peak when highest temperatures typically occur—a critical timing detail affecting how traders should interpret final readings.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, typically issued five to ten days before the event. Subtropical pressure systems and any early monsoon onset will be the primary drivers of temperature variance. Sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea and upper-atmosphere wind patterns in late May will signal whether June 4 experiences typical seasonal warmth or an anomalous heat event. Real-time weather models from major forecasters become reliable only within 7–10 days of the date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.