Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s temperature reading on 1 August will be taken from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, with the market settling on the range containing the day’s **Absolute Daily Max** in degrees Celsius. August is normally one of the city’s hottest months, and the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 1 August’s mean maximum temperature at **31.6°C**, which gives a useful baseline for judging whether the eventual high sits in the low, mid or upper 30s.[1][12]

Recent Augusts show how quickly the top end can move. The Observatory reported a maximum of **35.4°C** on 5 August 2024, the highest reading that month, while August 2025 also produced a very hot spell with a month-high of **34.4°C** on 10 August.[9][14] Across the broader recent sample, August has repeatedly delivered highs above 34°C, so the market’s current **0% YES** implies an unusually low expectation against a climate that has recently supported notable spikes.[8][9][14]

The key catalyst is the Observatory’s publication of the final daily extract after 1 August, because the market cannot resolve until the data are finalised.[12] Traders should watch the morning and early-afternoon weather in Hong Kong, particularly whether any anticyclonic conditions or local clear-sky heating are noted in Observatory updates, since those are the set-ups that have preceded recent extreme August highs.[9][14] Once the official daily table is posted, the exact one-decimal maximum will determine the settlement range.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.