Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their daily climate extract. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" reading in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until that data becomes available.

August sits within Hong Kong's peak summer season, when daily maxima typically range between 31°C and 34°C. Historical records show that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur occasionally but remain uncommon for mid-August; the territory's all-time high of 39.9°C was recorded in September 1967. Over the past decade, August 11 specifically has seen maxima between 31.2°C and 33.8°C, with no outlier events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature range as the expected outcome, though the market structure indicates multiple resolution brackets exist.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding 11 August 2026, as such systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The Observatory publishes preliminary readings daily but finalises the "Absolute Daily Max" in their monthly climate summaries; resolution cannot occur until this official figure is released. Regional humidity levels and urban heat island effects across Hong Kong's built-up areas will influence the final reading, particularly in densely populated districts where temperatures typically run 1–2°C higher than rural zones.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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