Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s maximum temperature on 9 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **“Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)”** reading for that day, with settlement only after the Daily Extract is published. The current crowd price of **0% YES** sits against a market that is still awaiting the official figure, so the live outcome depends entirely on whether the Observatory’s reported peak reaches the relevant range once finalised.

The historical frame is straightforward: August in Hong Kong is typically hot enough to produce daily highs in the mid-30s Celsius, and recent readings show the city has already flirted with the top end of that band this summer. The Observatory reported that Hong Kong hit its hottest day of the year at **35.4°C**, while the current 9-day forecast points to a range of **30–36°C** for 9 August[4][10]. Third-party market data also clusters the main volume around **35–37°C**, suggesting traders are treating a low-to-mid 30s result as the central case rather than an outlier[3].

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s same-day forecast updates, any heat-related warnings, and the final station extraction once the day is over. Recent reporting from China Daily Asia said high temperatures were expected to persist until midweek, which supports the view that heat risk remains elevated rather than easing abruptly[8]. Traders should also watch for afternoon convection or showers, as those can cap the daily maximum even when the broader background pattern stays hot; the settlement source will still be the Observatory’s final published maximum, not a citywide average or private forecast[1][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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