Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing scattered clouds with temperatures around 81°F (27°C) at the Hong Kong International Airport, marking the live conditions on the day the market seeks to settle [1]. The prediction market asks whether the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 20 July 2026 will fall into a specific range, yet the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying the market believes the event is impossible or the range is wildly misaligned with historical norms.

Historically, late July in Hong Kong sees peak summer heat, with daily maximums frequently reaching 33°C to 35°C, and absolute records on 20 July often exceeding 36°C in recent decades. A 0% implied probability suggests the YES range is likely set below 30°C or above 40°C, both of which contradict the typical "Absolute Daily Max" patterns observed in the Observatory’s Daily Extract data for this date. Traders should scrutinise whether the range definition excludes the standard 33–35°C band that dominates Hong Kong’s July climatology.

The primary catalyst for resolution is the publication of the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalized "Daily Extract" for 20 July 2026, which will confirm the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" once data is locked [1]. No external announcements or weather forecasts can alter the settlement, as the market relies solely on the Observatory’s official record. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z, the only dependency is the timely release of this climatological data, which typically occurs within days after the date.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.