Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s high temperature on 31 July will be judged against the Hong Kong Observatory’s **absolute daily maximum**, so the market is about the city’s peak reading rather than the afternoon headline at the Observatory headquarters alone.[7] July is one of Hong Kong’s hottest months, with the Observatory’s July record monthly maximum at **35.7C** and recent summers repeatedly producing mid-30s extremes, including **36.1C** on 27 July 2023.[3][8]

The current **0% YES** price is consistent with the fact that the market cannot settle until the Observatory publishes the final Daily Extract, and traders will be reacting to the day’s actual maximum rather than broad seasonal averages.[16][13] Recent official hourly reports have shown that temperatures can vary sharply across the territory, with some New Territories stations several degrees hotter than the Observatory in Tsim Sha Tsui, which matters because the settlement source is the highest reading recorded on the date, not a city-wide mean.[7][12]

What moves this market is the late-day and post-midday temperature evolution, any Observatory warnings or special weather statements, and whether cloud, showers or an easing monsoon suppress the peak before the final extract is posted.[13][1] When Hong Kong has been under strong summer heat in recent years, the city has still needed precise final readings to confirm the result, so the key dependency is the Observatory’s published daily record rather than live impressions from the afternoon bulletin.[1][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.