Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place by the Hong Kong Observatory. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome suggests the market is either awaiting final data or misinterpreting the resolution criteria, as historical July highs in Hong Kong routinely exceed 30°C. AccuWeather forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 85°F to 95°F (approximately 29.4°C to 35°C), with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C), making extreme heat a seasonal norm rather than an anomaly[1].

Historical comparable cases frame the current probability: Hong Kong’s July temperatures have consistently been normal to above-normal, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 explicitly predicting above-normal temperatures due to ENSO status and climate model guidance[2]. The absolute maximum temperature recorded this year so far is 35.4°C on 30 May, confirming that extreme heat is already part of the 2026 climate profile[9]. Traders should watch for the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” data for 9 July, which is the sole resolution source, and monitor any sudden weather advisories from the Hong Kong Observatory regarding heatwaves or tropical cyclones that could alter the daily maximum[9]. A recent Facebook post notes a temporary temperature drop to 13°C expected this weekend, but this is inconsistent with July’s typical heat and may reflect a short-term anomaly rather than a trend[5]. The key dependency is the official publication of the “Absolute Daily Max” data, which will resolve the market once finalized.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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