Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 12 June 2026 will be measured against the Observatory's historical daily maximum temperature records. June sits within the pre-monsoon season, typically characterised by warm, humid conditions with occasional heavy rainfall as the southwest monsoon approaches. The absolute daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on any given June date provides the settlement benchmark, with historical data spanning decades available through their climate database.

Hong Kong's June temperatures have historically ranged between 28°C and 36°C for daily maxima, though extremes depend heavily on synoptic patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature range options or reflecting uncertainty about which bracket will contain the actual reading. Historical June data from the Observatory shows considerable year-to-year variation; some years see cooler, wetter conditions dominated by early monsoon activity, whilst others experience pre-monsoon heat spikes. Comparable dates in adjacent years and decadal trends in the Observatory's published climate normals offer the most reliable framing for expected ranges.

The settlement depends entirely on the Hong Kong Observatory's publication of the "Absolute Daily Max" figure in their Daily Extract once 12 June 2026 has passed and data processing is complete. No interim forecasts or third-party measurements will suffice; only the official Observatory record triggers resolution. Traders should monitor the Observatory's data release schedule, typically published within days of the observation date, and confirm which specific temperature ranges are available as settlement options before committing positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.