Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

Hong Kong's temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and resolved to whichever range contains the daily maximum reading in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its Daily Extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation period.

June in Hong Kong sits firmly within the early monsoon season, with mean daily maxima around 31–32°C and high humidity. Historical records show considerable variability: the Observatory's climate data reveals June extremes ranging from approximately 28°C on cooler days to 35°C or higher during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a placeholder market pending full specification of temperature bands.

Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any announced weather patterns for early June 2026. The South China Sea monsoon's intensity and timing directly influence whether a given day trends toward the seasonal mean or breaks into the upper range. Real-time tracking of atmospheric pressure systems and tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding mid-June will provide the most actionable signals, as these systems can either suppress or elevate maximum temperatures significantly. The Observatory publishes monthly outlooks that typically become available 4–6 weeks in advance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.