Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

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Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 8 June 2026 will be measured against the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum temperature record, with settlement determined by which temperature band contains that day's peak reading in Celsius. The market currently shows zero probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or uncertainty about available outcome brackets.

June sits within Hong Kong's early summer period, when daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C based on thirty-year climate normals. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur rarely in early June, with such readings more common in July and August. The 0% crowd probability across all bands likely reflects either technical market conditions or traders awaiting clarity on the specific temperature ranges offered for settlement.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes its "Daily Extract" data with a lag following each calendar day, meaning the market cannot resolve until official figures are released and verified. Traders should monitor the Observatory's climate database directly for the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" entry for 8 June 2026 once that data becomes available. Seasonal weather patterns and any unusual atmospheric conditions in early June 2026 will determine the actual outcome, though typical early-summer conditions would place the reading in the 30–33°C band based on historical precedent.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.