Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 9 June 2026 will be measured against historical June temperatures recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, with the market pricing an extreme heat outcome at just 2% probability. June typically sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon transition period, when southwesterly winds begin to dominate and humidity climbs sharply ahead of the summer monsoon season proper.

The Hong Kong Observatory's climate records show that June daily maxima in the territory average around 31–32°C, with absolute extremes rarely exceeding 35°C during this month. The highest June temperature on record stands at 36.3°C, set in 1967. Recent decades have seen occasional June days breach 34°C, but sustained heat above 35°C remains uncommon for the month, occurring perhaps once per decade on average. The 2% crowd probability reflects this historical scarcity of extreme June heat, anchored to the rarity of conditions that would need to align—sustained high pressure, weak monsoon onset, and minimal cloud cover—to drive temperatures into the 35°C+ range.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Western Pacific through May and early June 2026, as these drive monsoon timing and intensity. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes monthly climate outlooks and extended forecasts that will clarify whether June 2026 develops typical transition-month conditions or anomalous heat. Settlement depends on the Observatory's official daily extract publication, which typically arrives within days of the observation date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.