Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s temperature on 3 August will be judged by the day’s high at William P. Hobby Airport, and the market is currently pricing a **0% YES** outcome. That is consistent with the fact that late-summer highs in Houston are usually driven by a narrow band of hot, humid outcomes rather than anything extreme, with recent August climatology clustering around the upper 80s to mid 90s Fahrenheit and daily forecasts commonly calling for highs in the 90s.[15][19][2]

Recent local forecasts have leaned hot but not especially volatile: one Houston forecast for 3 August showed a sunny day with a high around **96F**, while another outlet put the range at **78F to 99F** with sunshine and only a modest chance of rain.[3][6] Similar recent coverage has pointed to highs flirting with **100 degrees** in early August, alongside isolated afternoon storms that can trim the peak if cloud cover builds earlier than expected.[17][18][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are timing and cloud evolution rather than any major synoptic shock. The highest reading at Hobby will usually be set in the mid to late afternoon, so any unexpected morning convection, sea-breeze interaction, or a late-day thunderstorm band could cap the maximum even if the broader forecast stays hot.[1][7][12] In practice, the main things to watch are the final hour-by-hour forecast updates from local outlets and the station observation trend itself, because a forecast near 95-100F leaves the temperature range sensitive to just a few degrees of cloud cover or rainfall timing.[3][17][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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