Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s July 10, 2026, high temperature hinges on whether the city continues its pattern of extreme heat, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome below 90°F. Historical data shows July highs in Houston typically range from 92°F to 95°F, rarely dipping below 87°F or exceeding 100°F[3]. Notably, July 10, 2022, recorded a peak of 104°F, while the city recently endured its second-warmest July on record, averaging 87.8°F daily[2][6]. The market’s leading outcome is 90–91°F at 40%, followed by 92–93°F at 33%, suggesting traders expect temperatures near the seasonal average rather than record-breaking extremes[1].

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from AccuWeather, which project daily highs between 85°F and 96°F for July 2026, with an average high of 93°F[5]. Key catalysts include updates on heatwave intensity, humidity levels, and any shifts in regional weather patterns that could push temperatures toward the 100°F threshold. While no specific injury or suspension news applies to weather markets, sudden atmospheric changes—such as cloud cover or rain—could drastically alter the outcome. The settlement source, Wunderground’s record for William P. Hobby Airport Station, will provide the definitive temperature, making live tracking essential as the event approaches[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.