Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s **highest temperature at William P. Hobby Airport** will be set by how quickly the city heats after sunrise and whether afternoon cloud, sea-breeze flow or storm development caps the day’s peak. The market’s 0% implied probability on a given bracket reflects how extreme the top end of Houston July heat can be, but also how often humidity, cloud cover and convective rainfall trim the maximum before the hottest part of the afternoon.

July in Houston is typically very warm, with average highs around **96°F** and around **9 to 10 rainy days** in the month, so the distribution is usually skewed towards the mid-to-upper 90s rather than a runaway spike into the 100s.[2] Comparable recent local weather shows how sensitive the ceiling is to moisture and cloud: a Houston day with fog still reached **95°F**, underlining that the airport can still post a strong maximum even when conditions are not fully clear.[1] That keeps the market anchored to whether the day behaves like a standard hot Gulf Coast afternoon or whether early cloud and showers shave a few degrees off the peak.

The main catalysts are the morning-to-midday forecast updates for Houston, especially any mention of thunderstorms, outflow boundaries or persistent cloud that would suppress solar heating, plus any strengthening onshore flow that limits afternoon warming. Traders should also watch for official observation updates from the airport station itself, because the market resolves to the **highest recorded temperature** on the day rather than a simple daily forecast high, so a late-afternoon spike still matters if the atmosphere clears.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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