Highest temperature in London on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at London City Airport is the key settlement driver, and the market is already leaning towards a warm but not extreme outcome, with 27°C the crowd leader at 52% and 26°C next at 26%.[1] That pricing fits a summer profile in which London reaches the high 20s under a settled ridge, but the outcome still depends on the exact timing of cloud, sea-breeze effects and any lingering overnight moisture at the airport site.[1][4]

For context, late-June 2026 delivered the year’s standout heat in London, with 26.6°C at Kew Gardens reported as the city’s hottest day so far, which shows the market is not dealing with a backdrop of extraordinary heat.[3][16] The current forecast range in London for this period sits around the mid-to-high 20s, with several model-based outlooks clustering near 27°C and some reaching 28°C, while the broader summer pattern has been running a little above average rather than at record levels.[1][4][12] That makes sub-27°C outcomes credible if cloud cover lingers, but also leaves room for a clean 27°C or 28°C print if sunshine lasts through the afternoon.[1][4]

What traders should watch is the day-of evolution of the local forecast and any revised model guidance, because small shifts in wind direction or cloud break-up can move the peak by a degree or two.[1][4] The market also matters on timing: it settles on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport during the relevant window, so an early-afternoon maximum can be enough if later conditions cool, and any late data revisions before the first datapoint for the following date remains relevant to resolution.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.