Highest temperature in London on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s temperature on 3 August is set by the highest reading at London City Airport Station, so the market will hinge on the day’s peak, not the average or the morning forecast. Seasonal context matters: London’s early-August climate normally sits in the high teens to low 20s Celsius for daytime maxima, but the city has also seen sharp late-summer spikes when a hot airmass settles over south-east England.[10][14]

That makes the current crowd-implied **0% yes** hard to read as a weather view and more as a market-price anomaly, because recent information points to a meaningful chance of much warmer conditions. Polymarket’s own market page says the latest Met Office guidance for London on 3 August indicated **31–32°C** under sunny conditions, with trader consensus around **30–31°C**, while ensemble output was clustered near **31°C** and showed limited risk of **33°C+**.[2] Wider UK reporting this summer has also shown the south-east capable of pushing into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with London-area highs of **26.6°C** and **32.3°C** already recorded in 2026.[3][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final Met Office updates, any shift in cloud cover or wind direction, and whether heat builds earlier in the day enough to lift the station’s maximum before the settlement cut-off. The market notes that revisions count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late-breaking changes to the daily history feed can still matter.[2] The most important watchpoint is whether forecast maxima stay anchored around 30–31°C or whether fresh guidance opens the door to an upper-30s-style surge; if the former holds, the 30°C and 31°C bands remain the most relevant reference points.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.