Highest temperature in London on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the forecast for London City Airport on 10 July 2026, where meteorological models predict a mostly sunny, very warm day with a crystal-clear sky and temperatures reaching 87°F (31°C) [4]. This aligns with the long-term average for July, the hottest month at this station, which typically sees an average high of 72°F (22°C) [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a higher temperature range suggests traders are confident the day will not breach the 32°C (90°F) threshold, a level that has been rare historically at EGLC despite occasional spikes elsewhere in London.

Historical data shows that while London recorded 40.2°C (104.4°F) provisionally at Heathrow in July 2022, London City Airport has not consistently matched such extremes due to its coastal urban location [8]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that temperatures at EGLC rarely exceed 32°C, with most July days hovering between 22°C and 28°C [1]. The 0% probability reflects this pattern, as the station’s climate profile makes a sudden, unforecasted surge above 32°C highly improbable under current stable conditions.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s 7-day forecast updates for any sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover, which could alter the heat index [3]. A key catalyst is the southerly wind at 8 mph and 88% humidity observed at 6 AM, which may trap heat if cloud cover increases unexpectedly [5]. Any announcement from the National Weather Service regarding a heatwave or high-pressure system moving over the Thames Valley could quickly invalidate the current 0% stance, so real-time data from Wunderground remains the definitive settlement source [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.