Highest temperature in London on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves to the **highest temperature at London City Airport** on 31 July, so the key question is whether the day finishes in the low 20s, the high 20s, or pushes into a hotter bracket before the midday settlement cut-off. London’s late-July climatology usually sits in the low 20s Celsius, with AccuWeather’s monthly profile showing 31 July around **22°C** as a typical high and recent historical data in London often topping out in the mid-to-high 20s rather than extreme heat.[1][11]

The wider London record shows that July can produce outliers, but those are rare and usually linked to heatwaves rather than normal summer conditions. London’s all-time maximum is **40.2°C**, recorded at Heathrow and St James’s Park during the 2022 heatwave, while **31 July 2020** reached **37.8°C** at Heathrow, underlining that the upper tail can move sharply when the synoptic pattern locks in hot air.[3][4][14] By contrast, the 2025 London historical record for the same date only showed mid-70s Fahrenheit readings, illustrating how much the eventual number depends on the specific weather regime rather than the calendar alone.[2]

For traders, the live catalysts are the Met Office and BBC weather updates on whether southeastern England is under a heat plume, plus any forecast revisions in the final 24–48 hours that affect London City Airport directly.[6][16] The market’s 0% YES implies the crowd has priced in an outcome outside the warmer bands, but that can change quickly if forecasts shift towards a convective or heatwave-driven maximum, especially because the settlement uses the single highest reading for the day rather than an average.[3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.