Highest temperature in London on June 1?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 1 June 2026 will determine which temperature band this market resolves to, with settlement based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date.

June temperatures at London City Airport typically range between 18–23°C, with the long-term average high around 21°C. Historical data shows that exceeding 25°C on this date occurs rarely; the station has recorded only occasional days above this threshold in early June across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the temperature remains within lower bands, though this reflects current positioning rather than meteorological impossibility. Comparable early-June conditions from recent years—such as 2022 and 2023—saw highs between 19–22°C at the airport, establishing a useful baseline for assessing outlier scenarios.

The Met Office's seasonal outlook and any Atlantic weather systems approaching the UK in late May will shape June 1st conditions. High-pressure systems drifting northward could elevate temperatures into the mid-20s, whilst low-pressure troughs or northerly airflow would suppress readings. Traders should monitor extended forecasts from mid-May onwards, as the 10–14 day window becomes more reliable for identifying whether anomalous warmth is likely. Any heatwave warnings issued by the Met Office in the preceding week would signal material upside risk to current probability assessments.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.