Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport sits in a fairly ordinary late-summer pattern, with recent readings landing in the upper 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit rather than anywhere near extreme heat. Weather Underground’s KLAX history for 17 August showed morning observations in the upper 60s, while the National Weather Service’s daily report for the previous day put the maximum at 77F, which fits the broader August norm for the coast rather than a heat spike.[4][6]

That history matters because this market resolves off the highest observation in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the Day High & Low summary. When the day starts with values already in the high 60s and the broader run of recent KLAX reports has been capped around the upper 70s, the 0% yes line suggests the crowd is effectively pricing in no meaningful upside beyond the expected band.[4][11]

The main catalysts are straightforward: any late-morning or early-afternoon warmth at KLAX, plus the timing of the final observation before the settlement cut-off and any subsequent edits to the daily table. Weather Underground was still updating KLAX through the afternoon, with a 1:51 pm PDT reading of 78F on 17 August and a fresh daily history page active the same day, so traders would have been watching for whether the day could print above the prior 77F benchmark.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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