Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport’s peak temperature on 26 July is the settlement point here, and the market is currently pricing a very low chance of a hot outcome, with the leading bands only split between **80–81°F** and **74–75°F** on the crowd view.[1] That positioning matters because this is a single-station, single-day contract: a small shift in the official high at KLAX can move the result into a different bracket even if the wider Los Angeles area feels broadly similar.[1]

The 0% YES read is best understood as a sign of weak conviction rather than certainty. On the available day view, Los Angeles was shown as sunny with a maximum of **29°C** on 26 July, which is about **84°F** and sits above the market’s front-running bands, but that figure is not the official settlement source and may reflect a broader city forecast rather than the airport observation.[2] For a weather market like this, historical summer highs at coastal airports can diverge from inland expectations because marine influence often keeps KLAX cooler than the city centre.

The main catalysts to watch are the final airport observations on the day itself and any last-minute forecast shifts before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Because the market resolves off Wunderground’s daily history for Los Angeles International Airport, the key dependency is the reported *highest temperature recorded for all times on that date* rather than a midday snapshot or a generic city forecast.[1] That makes late-morning heat, sea-breeze timing, and any brief spike before the marine layer arrives the only variables likely to move the outcome materially.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.