Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s temperature on 10 August is usually warm but not extreme, with long-run August records showing a typical daytime high around the mid-20s Celsius and a record August maximum of 37.0°C. Extreme Weather Watch’s Munich August data lists a record high for 10 August of 35.9°C, which is useful because this market settles on the highest temperature actually logged in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the headline day-high figure.[1][17]

That makes the current 0% YES price look detached from the calendar’s real upside: even in a benign August climate, Munich can still produce occasional heat spikes, and the historical range from the low 30s into the upper 30s leaves room for a reading well above the market’s implied chance. The main comparator is not the monthly average but the distribution of hot days, where a single afternoon peak can settle the contract if it appears in the station log.[1][17]

For traders, the key catalysts are the late-morning and early-afternoon updates in Munich Airport Station’s hourly observations, plus any shift in the synoptic setup over southern Germany that increases sunshine and suppresses rain or cloud. Weather Underground’s history page is the primary source here, so the market will be driven by the highest value entered in the Daily Observations table up to 12:00 UTC, rather than by any summary box that may lag or differ from the station table.[2][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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