Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s August 9 temperature market is being settled off the LaGuardia Airport station on Weather Underground, not the more familiar day-high summary, and the crowd has already priced the top band at **90–91°F**. The latest weather read-through for Manhattan and LaGuardia showed temperatures around the upper 80s late on August 9, with WeatherSpark listing an 88.0°F report from KLGA at 17:51 UTC and a 6-hour high of 89.1°F, which fits a near-ceiling print for that band rather than a move into the mid-90s.[2][1]

The probability map is consistent with how New York City often behaves on late-summer warm days: once the metro reaches the upper 80s, the deciding factor is usually whether cloud cover, sea-breeze influence or a late-afternoon front clips the final degree or two. The National Weather Service page for Central Park still showed 83°F at 8:51 pm EDT on August 9, while AccuWeather’s monthly view had August 9 and 10 in the 90s, underscoring that the setup was hot but not obviously extreme enough to threaten the highest bins.[4][5] Weather-climate data also show New York’s August highs clustering in the 80s, with 91°F the recent upper edge in early August, which supports why traders have anchored on a narrow 90–91°F outcome rather than a broader heat spike.[6][3]

For traders, the key catalyst is the final LaGuardia daily observation sequence on Weather Underground, because revisions to temperatures within the market window can still be reflected until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[1] That means any late-night reissue, delayed station update or final hourly observation from KLGA could matter more than headline forecasts once the market closes. The current 0% on “YES” is therefore less a view on the day’s weather than a reflection of how decisively the live data have already clustered around the 90–91°F bin.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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