Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City will determine the outcome of a weather prediction market, with data sourced from Wunderground. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome appears to stem from a misinterpretation of the market’s resolution criteria, as historical and forecast data strongly suggest temperatures will fall within the 92–95°F range.

Historical records and recent forecasts frame this expectation clearly. Average daily highs in July at LaGuardia hover around 84°F, rarely exceeding 93°F, with the highest average high reaching 85°F by mid-July [7]. However, the 2026 forecast for Laguardia Airport indicates daily highs between 94°F and 99°F, with overnight lows of 79–83°F [2]. Polymarket data further confirms market confidence, assigning a 90% probability to the 92–93°F range and 9% to 94–95°F [1]. These figures contradict the 0% crowd-implied probability, suggesting a likely error in how the market is being read.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s official daily report for KLGA on 1 July 2026, as this is the definitive resolution source. Recent weather watches for extreme heat in New York, including historic highs of 105°F at LaGuardia, underscore the volatility of summer temperatures [8]. Additionally, the National Weather Service’s climatological report for 1 July 2026 notes a maximum temperature of 85°F, though this may reflect a specific time window rather than the day’s peak [3]. Any sudden shifts in heat advisories or wind patterns could influence the final reading, making real-time Wunderground updates the key catalyst for traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.