Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an unprecedented heatwave that has already shattered July temperature records across the northeastern United States, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 104°F on 3 July 2026. This extreme event has pushed the settlement probability for any lower temperature range to zero, as the crowd correctly identifies that the day’s peak will likely exceed historical norms. The market’s 0% YES probability reflects the certainty that temperatures will remain in the upper brackets, given the sheer intensity of the current atmospheric conditions.

Historically, LaGuardia’s highest July reading was 101°F in 1966, but the 2026 heatwave has already broken that record by three degrees. Comparable cases from the 1948 and 2006 August peaks, which reached 103°F and 102°F respectively, suggest that even extreme summer days rarely surpass 105°F at this station. However, the current wave’s persistence and the record-breaking midnight temperature of 94°F indicate a sustained thermal anomaly that could push July 10’s peak toward or beyond 105°F, making lower ranges implausible.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time updates for LaGuardia (KLGA) and Wunderground’s daily history page, which will confirm the official high once the settlement window closes. The key catalyst is whether the heatwave persists through 10 July without a cooling front, as recent forecasts from AccuWeather suggest daily highs could still reach 91°F, though the current trend far exceeds this. Any sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could alter the peak, but the prevailing data points to a record-contending day.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.