Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces its peak summer heat window as LaGuardia Airport records the day’s maximum temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any outcome above the lowest bracket. Historical data for mid-July at KLGA shows typical highs clustering between 84°F and 90°F, with 86–87°F appearing most frequent over the past decade. The crowd’s 35% allocation to 86–87°F and 30% to 88–89°F aligns closely with National Weather Service records, suggesting the 0% YES probability reflects a mispricing of the baseline thermal norm rather than an extreme cold anomaly [1][2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 12-hour forecast updates for the New York area, particularly any shifts in dew point or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures below 84°F. A sudden influx of marine air from the Atlantic or an unexpected thunderstorm system moving through the Hudson Valley would be the primary catalysts pushing outcomes toward the lower brackets. Wunderground’s real-time hourly history for KLGA will serve as the definitive settlement source, so any discrepancy between forecast models and observed readings at 3 PM local time warrants immediate position adjustment [1]. The market’s current structure implies confidence in a standard summer day, making deviations from the 86–89°F range the key trading edge.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.