Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record its highest temperature on 19 July 2026, with the reading taken across all daylight and evening hours and settled against Weather Underground's historical database for that specific date and station.

New York City's July temperatures have historically clustered in the 82–90°F range, with extreme heat days pushing into the low 90s. The 30-year average high for mid-July at LaGuardia sits around 84°F, though the station has recorded peaks above 95°F during heat waves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that sits well below typical July conditions or uncertainty about which range bucket the market has defined. Without visibility on the exact temperature bands available for settlement, the probability reflects either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or structural confusion about the market's resolution bands.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with meaningful accuracy emerging five to seven days before the date. Tropical systems tracking toward the Northeast in mid-July could drive anomalous heat or, conversely, cooler maritime air masses. El Niño and La Niña patterns influence summer temperature regimes across the eastern seaboard; current oceanic conditions through early 2026 will shape baseline expectations. Traders should monitor late June and early July seasonal outlooks from NOAA and track any tropical activity developing in the Atlantic basin during the week preceding 19 July.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.