Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its peak daily temperature for 20 July 2026, with the market now locked on the 82–83°F range as the definitive outcome. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any other range reflects near-certainty in the data, driven by the finalised weather report from Wunderground confirming the day’s high within that narrow band. This outcome aligns with typical mid-July heat patterns for the region, where temperatures frequently climb into the low 80s under clear skies and high-pressure systems.

Historical records from the National Weather Service show LaGuardia’s July highs have consistently hovered between 78°F and 84°F over the past decade, with 82–83°F appearing in four of the last ten years [2]. The current market consensus mirrors this stability, treating the result as a statistical norm rather than an outlier. Traders reviewing comparable cases will note that deviations below 75°F or above 86°F remain rare, occurring in less than 15% of observed July days.

No further catalysts exist to shift the settlement, as the observation window closed at 12:00 UTC on 20 July and the resolution source is already finalised. The only dependency was the timely publication of Wunderground’s daily summary, which has been confirmed. With the event fully resolved and the frontrunner at 100%, the market offers no actionable uncertainty for new positions.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.