Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 21 July 2026 will be recorded and settled against historical weather data. The settlement relies on Wunderground's documented high for that calendar day, measured in Fahrenheit at the airport weather station.

New York City's July temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with historical peaks occasionally exceeding 90°F during heat waves. The 21st falls mid-summer when Atlantic moisture and continental heat patterns converge. Comparable July days at LaGuardia show considerable variance: the airport recorded 96°F on 21 July 2019 and 84°F on the same date in 2015. The current 0% probability assigned to the market suggests traders expect the high to fall outside the upper temperature bands offered, though this reflects uncertainty about which specific range brackets are available for settlement rather than certainty about actual conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as mid-July 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether Atlantic tropical systems or Bermuda High pressure patterns develop in the preceding weeks. Historical precedent shows that late July heat waves in the Northeast often correlate with upper-level ridge positioning and Gulf moisture transport. The settlement window closes at midday on 21 July, meaning morning forecasts will be the final reliable data point before resolution. Wunderground's historical archive has proven consistent for airport station data, making the primary variable the actual meteorological conditions rather than data availability.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.