Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. July in New York typically sees high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-90s or occasionally higher.

LaGuardia's historical July records show considerable year-to-year variation. The station has recorded July highs ranging from the mid-70s during cooler years to 96°F during notable heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or have not yet engaged with this market. Comparable July 24th data from prior years at LaGuardia would provide the most direct baseline; typical conditions for late July place the most probable range between 82–92°F, with extreme outcomes (below 75°F or above 95°F) less frequent but historically documented.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of Atlantic ridge positioning or tropical system activity that could alter temperature patterns. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will offer the most actionable guidance. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—a densely developed airport surrounded by built environment—tend to elevate recorded temperatures relative to surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating seasonal norms.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.