Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s high temperature for 26 July will be settled by the top reading recorded at the airport station, and the market is currently pricing the day as a fairly warm but not extreme summer outing, with **84-85°F** the leading bucket at **41%** and **82-83°F** close behind at **36%**.[1] That distribution implies traders are clustering around the mid-80s rather than a sharper heat spike, which is consistent with the kind of July climatology that usually keeps New York City around the high 80s Fahrenheit on average rather than pushing into exceptional territory.[3]

For context, the live probability remains sensitive to whether the afternoon gets enough sun and humidity to lift the airport’s peak above the low-80s band. An hour-by-hour forecast source for Sunday, 26 July lists New York with sunny conditions, a maximum of **28°C** and wind around **17 km/h**, which would translate to the sort of upper-80s Fahrenheit ceiling that keeps the market concentrated in adjacent ranges rather than scattered across the full board.[2] If that forecast holds, the key catalyst is any late-day change in cloud cover, sea-breeze influence, or thunderstorm timing, because those are the factors most likely to cap the day’s maximum before it reaches the highest implied buckets.[2][3]

The main thing to watch is not a headline injury report but the final weather update cycle before the settlement window closes at noon UTC, when revised forecasts or observational data can still shift expectations materially. Heat advisories or cooling-centre alerts would matter only if they reflect a broader hot-air mass over the city, as recent NYC heat-wave coverage has highlighted the potential for the region to run far above normal when conditions lock in.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.