Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 27 July 2026 will be recorded and settled against predetermined ranges. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme uncertainty about which range will validate. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground's LaGuardia station records, with the highest daily reading determining the outcome.

New York's late-July climate typically produces highs between 82–88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The past decade shows considerable variation: July 2019 saw peaks near 90°F during a sustained heat event, whilst cooler years have recorded highs in the upper 70s. Comparable periods in 2022 and 2023 produced mid-to-high 80s readings. Historical volatility across similar calendar dates means the most probable ranges cluster around 84–90°F, with extreme outliers (below 75°F or above 95°F) representing genuine but lower-probability outcomes.

Traders should monitor Atlantic weather patterns and upper-level atmospheric conditions as July 2026 approaches. Tropical systems tracking northward, high-pressure systems anchored over the Northeast, or unusual polar intrusions all materially shift expected temperatures. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts—typically reliable 10–14 days out—will sharpen probability distributions closer to the settlement date. Any significant climate anomalies or documented heat dome formations across the eastern seaboard in late July would warrant immediate position reassessment.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.