Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s peak temperature on 30 July will be the key settlement input, and the market is currently pricing a 0% chance of the hottest reading falling into the ‘YES’ range, which is a very low bar against New York City’s summer history. The broader city record for July 30 is well above ordinary midsummer levels: one historical summary notes 98°F on 30 July 1940, while another July 30 archive describes a day that reached 95°F and says a separate year topped out at 98°F for the date.[2][3]

Recent comparables matter because late-July heat in New York can still spike sharply when a ridge of high pressure locks in dry, subsiding air. In early July 2026, Central Park reached 100°F for the first time since 2012, and JFK also hit 100°F that day, showing the metro area can still produce extreme readings when the pattern aligns.[17] But that kind of outcome is weather-dependent rather than seasonal by default, so the market’s zero-implied probability suggests traders are leaning towards a more typical summer profile rather than a one-day heat surge.

The main catalysts to watch are the forecast track in the final 72 hours, any heat advisories or excessive-heat warnings from the National Weather Service, and whether cloud cover, onshore flow, or thunderstorms cap the afternoon maximum. The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for KLGA, so the relevant number is the day’s highest observed temperature at LaGuardia rather than a citywide average or nearby station reading.[4] If the terminal forecast trends towards the upper 80s or low 90s, the market stays anchored near a “normal summer day” outcome; a credible heat-wave setup would need repeated forecast upgrades, not just one warm model run.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.